Sunday, 11 June 2017

General Election 2017: The Scottish Constituencies

A quick crunch of the figures and some throwaway observations:
  • The "unionist" parties (Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems) had a 62.4 % overall vote share and greater than a 50% vote share in every constituency in Scotland

  • The SNP's 36.9% share in Scotland was lower than Labour's 40.0% vote share across the UK -- but won them 59% of seats

  • With 27% of the vote, Labour won just 12% of seats; the Conservatives with 29% of the vote won 22% of seats, the Lib Dems with 7% of vote won 7% of seats

  • The Scottish Conservatives received just a 1.5% higher vote share than Scottish Labour by dint of getting 5.7% more votes [757k vs 717k]

  • Scottish Labour were second in 24 constituencies, Conservatives in 10 and Lib Dems in 1 (by just 2 votes)

  • The SNP came second in every seat they lost

  • There were four constituencies with winning margins of less than 100 votes -- these were all won by the SNP

  • Across the 6 constituencies which the SNP won with the lowest margin of victory, they cumulatively won by just 619 votes (or an average of 102 votes per constituency) -- a swing of just 310 votes nationwide would have seen the SNP lose their claim to a majority of Scottish seats at Westminster

  • The lowest winning constituency vote share was the SNP's 32.6% in Lanark & Hamilton East where the Tories polled 32.1%, Labour 31.9%

  • The largest winning margin was comfortably Labour's Ian Murray's 15,514 majority in Edinburgh South; with a 54.9% vote share he was 32.4% ahead of  the SNP who polled just 22.5%

  • The only other constituency won with a majority vote share was the Scottish Conservative's John Lamont who won Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk with 53.9% of the vote, a majority of 11,060 over the SNP who polled 32.8%

  • The SNP's Vote share dropped from 50.0% in 2015 to 36.9% in 2017; their total votes dropped by a third [from 1,454,436 to 977,569]

Here's the raw data in tabular and graph format - if I've made any errors let me know and I will of course correct


George said...

"the Conservatives with 29% of the vote won 12% of the seats" I think it should be 22% of the seats, that's what it says in your table. Really interesting analysis.

stevie mac said...

Thanks again Kevin. The most extraordinary numbers for me are the comparators between SNP and Conservatives in 2015 & 17. In the former the SNP attracted 1.02 Million votes more than the Conservatives. In 17 it dropped to just 220,000. Makes it more difficult to argue Scotland doesn't get the UK Government it wants.

Kevin Hague said...

thanks George: corrected now